Waller signals more Fed hikes: 16 of 18 participants saw at least one more in 2026
Waller expects additional Fed hikes if data evolve as forecast. Sixteen of 18 officials saw at least one more increase before year-end 2026.
In this article
The short answer: Waller’s message strengthens the case for additional hikes, but it does not promise a date or an uninterrupted sequence. If inflation and employment depart from the forecast path, the Fed’s pace can change too.
Three critical developments
- Waller said he anticipates additional hikes if the data evolve as expected, while noting that increases need not occur at consecutive meetings.
- In September, 16 of 18 participants projected at least one more 2026 hike; four of the 16 projected two more.
- The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Today’s Waller speech is not a new FOMC decision.
What happens next? Three data-dependent paths
This is not a price target or probability ranking; it separates conditions from transmission channels.
| Condition | Fed path | Gold and dollar | Business and portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core inflation stays high; jobs remain solid | Case for more hikes strengthens; timing remains meeting-by-meeting | Short yields and dollar may find support; real yields can weigh on gold | Floating-rate dollar debt and long-duration valuations become more sensitive |
| Inflation slows materially | More room to pause; no automatic cut | Yields may ease; dollar support may fade, with conditional benefit for gold | Funding pressure may ease; earnings still require a separate view |
| Jobs weaken while price pressure persists | Growth-inflation trade-off; no fixed path follows | Safe-haven demand competes with the rate effect | Cash flow, maturity and FX revenue widen sector dispersion |
A policy signal, not a new decision
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller used his Istanbul speech to recall that the FOMC raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in September. Today’s remarks are not a new decision made on behalf of the FOMC. Waller explained his own economic assessment and how to read the Summary of Economic Projections.
What did 16 of 18 participants project?
Sixteen of 18 September SEP participants placed their end-2026 policy rate above the midpoint of the current range, corresponding to at least one more 25-basis-point increase. Four projected two more hikes. The median year-end projection was 4.1%, within a 3.9%–4.4% range. Dots are individual forecasts, not a joint decision, promise or fixed calendar.
Why a 75-basis-point signal is not a timetable
Waller used an example in which a 75-basis-point move unfolds over six months to show that projections can signal direction without prescribing speed. He said he anticipates additional hikes if data evolve as forecast, but they need not be consecutive. The key distinction is between a tighter direction and a hike at every meeting.
What path had markets priced?
Waller said futures prices as of October 7 implied roughly an 85% chance of at least one hike by December and nearly a 20% chance of two. By March 2027, they implied nearly an 80% chance of at least two hikes and a 33% chance of three or more. These are dated estimates cited in the speech, not live probabilities or FinRateX forecasts.
Cost on $100,000 of floating-rate debt
If a loan contract passes a policy move through fully and immediately, 25 basis points would add a theoretical $250 to simple annual interest on $100,000; 50 basis points would add $500 and 75 basis points $750. Compounding, tax, fees, lender margins, exchange-rate changes and different reset dates are excluded. Actual cost must be read from the contract.
MY MONEY, BUSINESS AND PORTFOLIO · Start with maturity and rate type
For a dollar borrower, fixed versus floating rates, the reset date and dollar revenue are the first checks. Long-duration bonds and high-growth equities can be more rate-sensitive, although earnings may offset that effect. For gold, real-yield pressure and safe-haven demand can pull in opposite directions. CBRT policy, local inflation and risk premiums remain separate drivers of USD/TRY.
Calculation notes
Participant counts, the median and range come from the Fed’s September projection table; the policy range comes from the September 16 statement; the message analyzed comes from Waller’s October 8 speech. Market probabilities quoted in the speech are time-stamped, not live data. The matrix is conditional analysis and the debt calculation is a simple illustration. Taxes, fees and product terms are excluded. This is not investment advice.
Gold, energy and commodities
Gold, energy and commodities
Gold, energy and commodities