CBRT decision tomorrow: a one-point deposit-rate move changes TRY 100,000 by TRY 58
The CBRT Monetary Policy Committee decision is due at 2:00 PM TRT on September 10, 2026. Starting from today's 44% promotional-deposit example, a purely illustrative full pass-through of 100 basis points would move the 32-day net interest on TRY 100,000 by about TRY 58 in either direction.
Three rates that stand out
- Decision at 2:00 PM TRT on September 10: The latest official policy rate is 37%; no new rate or direction can be stated as fact before the release.
- 44% baseline scenario: With TRY 20,000 left non-interest-bearing, TRY 80,000 produces TRY 3,086.03 gross over 32 days and TRY 2,545.97 net after 17.5% withholding.
- Mechanical 100-basis-point difference: Under identical assumptions, 43% produces about TRY 2,488.11 net and 45% produces TRY 2,603.84; each is roughly TRY 58 from the baseline.
Pre-decision deposit-rate sensitivity matrix
This mechanical comparison assumes a bank's promotional rate moves by a full 100 basis points in the same direction after the decision; it is not a bank-pricing forecast.
| Instrument / scenario | Current rate / ratio | Term / scope | Net rate / return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full 100 bp decrease | 43% annual gross | TRY 80,000 interest-bearing · 32 days | TRY 2,488.11 net · 2.488% of total cash |
| Bank rate unchanged | 44% annual gross | TRY 80,000 interest-bearing · 32 days | TRY 2,545.97 net · 2.546% of total cash |
| Full 100 bp increase | 45% annual gross | TRY 80,000 interest-bearing · 32 days | TRY 2,603.84 net · 2.604% of total cash |
| CBRT policy rate | 37% | One-week repo · July 23 decision | Not a retail deposit return |
FACT · When is the CBRT rate decision?
The CBRT's official 2026 calendar schedules the Monetary Policy Committee decision for Thursday, September 10 at 2:00 PM TRT. On July 23 the Committee kept the one-week repo rate at 37%, the overnight borrowing rate at 35.5% and the overnight lending rate at 40%. A change or hold is not a fact until the new decision is published.
DATA · What does TRY 100,000 earn net over 32 days today?
Alternatif Bank's VOV Account and Fibabanka's conditional Fonlu Kiraz offer publish annual gross rates of up to 44% on September 9. In both examples TRY 20,000 of a TRY 100,000 balance remains non-interest-bearing, so the calculation uses TRY 80,000: gross 32-day interest is TRY 3,086.03 and net interest after 17.5% withholding is TRY 2,545.97. This is neither a market average nor an unconditional offer to every customer.
SCENARIO · What does a 100-basis-point change do?
If the bank's annual gross rate falls from 44% to 43% while every other condition stays fixed, 32-day net interest falls to about TRY 2,488.11. At 45%, it rises to about TRY 2,603.84. The difference in either direction is roughly TRY 58; this is a fixed-condition sensitivity, not a forecast that the policy decision will pass through fully and immediately.
INTERPRETATION · Why policy rates do not pass through one for one
Banks price deposits using the policy rate alongside liquidity needs, maturity structure, customer-acquisition goals, reserve rules and funding conditions. A promotional rate can change even if policy is held, while a policy move may pass through by less, more or with a delay. Promotional and standard rates therefore need to be monitored separately.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR MY MONEY?
In the TRY 100,000 example, one annual percentage point changes 32-day net interest by roughly TRY 58, while the TRY 20,000 non-interest-bearing balance has a much larger limiting effect. After the decision, compare the interest-bearing balance, campaign period, withholding and linked-product conditions for the same amount and number of days—not just the headline rate.
EXPERT VIEW · Two steps after the decision
First verify the current customer-specific gross rate and non-interest-bearing balance rule; do not treat a policy move as an automatic gain or loss if the bank rate has not changed. Then compare alternatives over the same 32 days and the same net balance; these are informational scenarios, not investment advice.
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